What Kroger's Q4 Earnings Mean for Your Brand in 2026

On March 5, 2026, Kroger reported its Q4 and full-year fiscal 2025 results, and the headline numbers tell a story that every CPG supplier calling on Kroger should understand. Identical sales excluding fuel grew 2.4% in Q4 and 2.9% for the full year, eCommerce surged 20% in the quarter, and CEO Greg Foran set a clear agenda for 2026: invest more in customer value, drive procurement efficiencies, and reach eCommerce profitability. Each one of those priorities has a direct impact on how you position your brand, structure your trade spend, and show up in category reviews this year.

Kroger's full-year 2025 adjusted FIFO operating profit came in at $4.9 billion, up from $4.7 billion the prior year. Total company sales were $147.6 billion, essentially flat year over year, but when you strip out fuel and the divested Kroger Specialty Pharmacy business, underlying sales actually grew 3.0%. Gross margin expanded to 22.9% in 2025, up from 22.3% the prior year, driven by sourcing improvements, lower shrink, and lower supply chain costs. That margin improvement is important context for suppliers: Kroger's category managers are operating from a position of improving financial health, but they're also being pushed hard to fund price investments. That tension is exactly what your trade programs need to address.

For 2026, Kroger is guiding to identical sales growth of 1.0% to 2.0%, adjusted FIFO operating profit of $5.0 to $5.2 billion, and adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30. CFO David Kennerley specifically called out that Kroger plans to "invest more aggressively in value for customers" while still improving gross margins, funded by eCommerce reaching profitability, procurement efficiencies, and productivity gains. That phrase, "invest more aggressively in value," is Kroger-speak for price investments at shelf. For suppliers, that means your pricing architecture and your promotional programs are going to be scrutinized harder than ever in KOMPASS reviews this year.

One headwind worth noting: Kroger's identical sales guidance includes an approximately 130 basis point drag from the Inflation Reduction Act. That's not a supplier issue directly, but it does mean Kroger's reported comps will look softer than underlying volume trends, which could affect how category managers frame performance conversations with your brand teams.

Kroger delivered more than $16 billion in eCommerce sales in 2025, and the company completed a strategic review of its eCommerce operations that is expected to deliver $400 million in operating profit improvement in 2026. That is a significant number, and it signals that Kroger's digital and pickup/delivery business is no longer a loss-leader experiment. It's becoming a profit center, which means Kroger Precision Marketing and retail media investments tied to digital coupons, 84.51°-powered personalization, and Boost membership are going to become a more prominent part of supplier funding conversations. If your digital trade investment strategy isn't keeping pace with Kroger's eCommerce growth, 2026 is the year to close that gap.

When Kroger's CFO says the 2026 plan is funded in part by "meaningful procurement efficiencies," that's a signal your broker and your brand leadership need to take seriously. Procurement efficiency in a grocery retailer of Kroger's scale typically translates into pressure on trade terms, tighter allowance negotiations, and a sharper lens on total cost of doing business at the supplier level. Pair that with lower shrink as a noted gross margin driver, and it's clear that Kroger's category managers are being pushed to run tighter programs. Your trade dollars need to be working harder and documented more clearly than ever, whether that's through a strong post-promo analysis or a clean ROI story going into your next planning session.

The bottom line: Kroger finished 2025 in solid shape, and Greg Foran is running the business like someone who intends to stay on offense. For CPG suppliers, that means opportunity, but only for the brands that show up prepared, priced right, and invested in the metrics Kroger's category managers care about most.

From Cincinnati CPG Edge, keeping you in the Kroger know.